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黄金支撑位跌至1620美元,关注本周鲍威尔是否暗示放缓加息!

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本周的重点是美联储的货币政策,因为金价上周五将在沉重的抛售压力下收市。由于美联储本周三第四次加息75个基点的预期已经被市场消化,主要问题是美联储是否会在11月会议后放缓加息步伐

一些数据已经表明,经济增长放缓,经济衰退即将到来,包括加拿大央行(BOC)在内的一些央行转向小幅加息。

“全球货币紧缩周期最紧张的阶段过去了吗?预计美联储本周仍将连续第四次加息75个基点,但在加息的同时,可能会出现收紧步伐放缓的信号。在此之前,加拿大央行上周将加息幅度下调至50个基点,欧洲央行上周四加息75个基点,被认为是鸽派声调。”

加息速度放缓将对黄金有利,这也是一些分析师越来越看好黄金的原因。

“美联储将不再大幅加息,可能会在下次会议上讨论退出。以美元计价的金价一直不太好。如果我们看到美元下跌,黄金会表现非常好。”他表示,美联储加息的速度非常快,它可能准备好放缓加息。

然而,并非所有人都相信,美联储会愿意松开加息的油门

数据显示“有更多的疲软迹象,投资者急于将其考虑进去。但要下调速度并非易事,这里的市场将变得自满起来。”

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周五(11月25日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1756.59美元/盎司,因为感恩节假期,周四欧美时段金价窄幅震荡,交投比较清淡,不过受到鸽派美联储会议纪要的持续影响,美元指数周四仍然收跌,为连续三个交易日下跌,金价周四则小幅收涨,收报1755.27美元/盎司。 目前美元指数仍有进一步下行风险,有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会,但美元指数下方接近200日均线105.32附近强支撑,11月15日触及的逾三个月低点(105.30)支撑也在该位置附近,需要重点关注。如果美元指数跌破200日均线,料将给金价提供强劲的上涨动能,如果美元指数在200日均线附近获得支撑并展开反弹,则会加大金价的下跌风险。 周四的基本面相对清淡,感恩节假期,周五为感恩节翌日,没有重要经济数据出炉,多数交易日仍会休假,美国金融市场普遍会提前休市,市场观望情绪也比较浓,整体交投空间可能会受到限制。

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