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LIVE ANALYSIS

黄金市场分析:美指创逾两年新高 黄金反弹受限

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周二(4月26日),乌克兰冲突所产生的负面影响的不确定性持续增加,帮助现货黄金稳住了近期的剧烈跌势,使得隔夜市场上现货黄金勉力守在1900美元关口。而美元指数连续第四个交易日走高并创2020年3月份以来新高至101.97,则限制了黄金的反弹举动。
近期黄金的表现相对弱势,主要原因是全球风险事件延绵两个月后,市场的预期转换程度和适应程度均有较大提高,此时,市场关注和逻辑又重新偏向美联储货币紧缩;并且,近期美联储一再释放鹰派信号,令市场开始预计美联储今年将大幅加息控制通胀,交易员当前已押注美联储5月、6月和7月会议每次都至少将加息50个基点,并且还开始押注5月或6月政策会议加息75个基点的可能性,这给黄金带来了很大压力,从而偏弱运行。超强度加息的预期越来越强,黄金上周已经下跌2.4%。在新一周开始时,加息预期仍在给黄金施压,黄金的避险吸引力正在受到威胁。

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Daily Market Analysis

美元反弹打压金价,非农来袭,警惕空头“乘胜追击”

亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1916.20美元/盎司附近,因为隔夜金价跌幅较大,技术面存在一些反弹调整需求。周四欧洲央行如期加息50个基点,但欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话并不鹰派,美元指数大幅反弹,令金价大跌近40美元。 周四出炉的美国初请失业金人数低于市场预期,降至九个月最低,也给美元提供支撑,在周五非农数据公布前,一些黄金多头获利了结,对拖累金价表现。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示,对金市的基本支撑依然强劲,但市场小幅回调可能是由于在明天的美国月度就业数据之前出现一些获利了结。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美国1月份非农就业报告,虽然预期并不乐观,但从其他相关数据来看,非农新增就业人数好于预期的可能性较大,鉴于黄金技术面见顶信号进一步增强,投资者需要提防金价短线的进一步下行风险。

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