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黄金市场分析:美国4月零售超预期 现货金价冲高回落

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周二(5月17日)纽约时段盘中,美国方面公布了市场关注的恐怖数据美国4月零售销售,结果该数据表现超出市场预期。数据公布后,现货黄金从日间的高位1835附近回落,低收于1814美元水平附近,全日跌幅为0.53%。

周二美国零售销售具体数据显示,美国4月零售销售月率实际公布0.90%,预期0.8%,前值0.5%;美国4月零售销售年率实际公布8.19%,前值6.9%。美国4月核心零售销售月率实际公布0.60%,预期0.3%,前值1.1%。美国4月零售销售月率录得0.9%,创今年1月以来新高。

在周二参加的一项活动中,美联储主席鲍威尔表示需要看到通胀水平以显著的方式下降,否则将继续推进这一目标的实现,会毫不犹豫加息到中性水平之上,但是没有明确具体的数值。美联储官员埃文斯表示,如果通胀对紧缩政策的反应没有达到所需的程度,“我们将继续努力”。

有分析称,如果通胀在夏季没有消退,美联储可能会被迫在9月份或以后大幅加息为了全力抗击通胀。截至目前美联储已经在前两次会议上共计上调75个基点。美联储加息态度之坚决,恐将继续掣肘着黄金反弹欲望。

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周五(11月25日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1756.59美元/盎司,因为感恩节假期,周四欧美时段金价窄幅震荡,交投比较清淡,不过受到鸽派美联储会议纪要的持续影响,美元指数周四仍然收跌,为连续三个交易日下跌,金价周四则小幅收涨,收报1755.27美元/盎司。 目前美元指数仍有进一步下行风险,有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会,但美元指数下方接近200日均线105.32附近强支撑,11月15日触及的逾三个月低点(105.30)支撑也在该位置附近,需要重点关注。如果美元指数跌破200日均线,料将给金价提供强劲的上涨动能,如果美元指数在200日均线附近获得支撑并展开反弹,则会加大金价的下跌风险。 周四的基本面相对清淡,感恩节假期,周五为感恩节翌日,没有重要经济数据出炉,多数交易日仍会休假,美国金融市场普遍会提前休市,市场观望情绪也比较浓,整体交投空间可能会受到限制。

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