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LIVE ANALYSIS

黄金交易提醒:美元“猛如虎”,黄金多头被吓坏!等待“非农”决战

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周五(5月6日)亚洲时段,现货黄金小幅走弱,目前交投于1868美元附近;周四金价冲高回落,因市场认为美联储收紧货币政策的力度超过其他主要央行,美元指数录得近两年最大单日涨幅,再次刷新近二十年新高,抵消了美联储加息立场相对不那么鹰派对金价的支撑。

美联储前副主席克拉里达认为,美国利率必须加到至少3.5%,英国央行将基准利率上调至1%,都令多头顾忌持有黄金的机会成本,尽管美股大跌和地缘局势仍给金价提供支撑,但短线金价仍偏向空头。

市场目光开始转向晚间的非农就业报告,从ISM制造业就业指数、ISM非制造业就业指数、ADP、初请失业金等数据来看,晚间的非农就业人数可能增幅有限,仍可能会给金价提供探底回升的机会。但若非农表现强于市场预期,则需要提防金价下探1850关口的可能性。

此外,美联储官员也将陆续发表讲话,可能会给美联储未来货币政策做进一步的暗示,投资者也需要予以关注。

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Daily Market Analysis

黄金交易提醒:美联储决议来袭,警惕多空双杀!

周三(2月1日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡,目前交投于1927美元/盎司附近。隔夜金价探底回升,虽然上周出炉的美国四季度GDP数据增强了鹰派预期,再加上月末仓位调整因素,美元指数周二一度反弹至近两周高位附近,金价则一度跌至1900整数关口附近,但美国第四季劳动力成本增幅低于预期,令鸽派预期有所回升,吸引逢低涌入金市,帮助金价扭跌为涨,收盘交投于1928美元/盎司附近。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美联储利率决议,市场普遍预期美联储将加息25个基点,但对于美联储的鹰鸽态度还存在一定的分歧。一方面,美联储可能强化将利率较长时间维持在5%以上,以更好的控制通胀水平,但另一方面,市场怀疑美联储可能会向外界传递将在5月份中止加息的信号。

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