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黄金交易提醒:美元杀回马枪金价低位徘徊,美股大跌黄金多头或择机出动?关注初请数据

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周四(5月19日)亚洲时段,现货黄金低位徘徊,目前交投于1815美元附近,美联储官员继续发表鹰派讲话,强化激进加息预期,帮助美元周三上涨,暂时中断了美元的高位回调,令金价承压;不过,美国4月建筑许可降至五个月最低,标普500指数和道指创近两年最大跌幅;富国银行三周两次下调标普500指数目标;摩根大通下调美国GDP增长预期,联合国下调2022年全球经济增长预期;这些仍给金价提供避险支撑。

本交易日重点关注美国初请失业金人数变动和美国4月成屋销售年化总数,留意俄乌局势、新冠疫情和美联储官员讲话。

基本面主要利空
美联储哈克认为6月和7月均将加息50个基点,然后再更“有节制地”升息
芝加哥联储埃文斯:利率超过中性水平可以遏制高通胀
美元结束三连跌

基本面主要利多
美国4月建筑许可降至五个月最低,房地产市场正在放缓
标普500指数和道指创近两年最大跌幅
经济衰退成为基本预测情形,富国银行三周两次下调标普500指数目标
摩根大通下调美国GDP增长预期 因美股下跌对金融财富产生冲击效应
高盛CEO称美国有经济衰退风险,Solomon指通胀“极具惩罚性”
联合国下调2022年全球经济增长预期

后市前瞻

整体而言,短线金价仍存在震荡下探的风险,但经济衰退预期和美股大跌等因素,有望吸引逢低买盘给金价提供支撑,这会限制金价的下跌空间;短线金价存在低位震荡筑底的可能性。

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Daily Market Analysis

美元面临关键支撑考验,金价站在十字路口?

周五(11月25日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1756.59美元/盎司,因为感恩节假期,周四欧美时段金价窄幅震荡,交投比较清淡,不过受到鸽派美联储会议纪要的持续影响,美元指数周四仍然收跌,为连续三个交易日下跌,金价周四则小幅收涨,收报1755.27美元/盎司。 目前美元指数仍有进一步下行风险,有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会,但美元指数下方接近200日均线105.32附近强支撑,11月15日触及的逾三个月低点(105.30)支撑也在该位置附近,需要重点关注。如果美元指数跌破200日均线,料将给金价提供强劲的上涨动能,如果美元指数在200日均线附近获得支撑并展开反弹,则会加大金价的下跌风险。 周四的基本面相对清淡,感恩节假期,周五为感恩节翌日,没有重要经济数据出炉,多数交易日仍会休假,美国金融市场普遍会提前休市,市场观望情绪也比较浓,整体交投空间可能会受到限制。

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