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黄金交易提醒:美元杀回马枪金价低位徘徊,美股大跌黄金多头或择机出动?关注初请数据

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周四(5月19日)亚洲时段,现货黄金低位徘徊,目前交投于1815美元附近,美联储官员继续发表鹰派讲话,强化激进加息预期,帮助美元周三上涨,暂时中断了美元的高位回调,令金价承压;不过,美国4月建筑许可降至五个月最低,标普500指数和道指创近两年最大跌幅;富国银行三周两次下调标普500指数目标;摩根大通下调美国GDP增长预期,联合国下调2022年全球经济增长预期;这些仍给金价提供避险支撑。

本交易日重点关注美国初请失业金人数变动和美国4月成屋销售年化总数,留意俄乌局势、新冠疫情和美联储官员讲话。

基本面主要利空
美联储哈克认为6月和7月均将加息50个基点,然后再更“有节制地”升息
芝加哥联储埃文斯:利率超过中性水平可以遏制高通胀
美元结束三连跌

基本面主要利多
美国4月建筑许可降至五个月最低,房地产市场正在放缓
标普500指数和道指创近两年最大跌幅
经济衰退成为基本预测情形,富国银行三周两次下调标普500指数目标
摩根大通下调美国GDP增长预期 因美股下跌对金融财富产生冲击效应
高盛CEO称美国有经济衰退风险,Solomon指通胀“极具惩罚性”
联合国下调2022年全球经济增长预期

后市前瞻

整体而言,短线金价仍存在震荡下探的风险,但经济衰退预期和美股大跌等因素,有望吸引逢低买盘给金价提供支撑,这会限制金价的下跌空间;短线金价存在低位震荡筑底的可能性。

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Lepanto Financial Advisers Limited is the holding company of Ultimate Pinnacle Limited. (Address: Fifth Floor, Suite 23, 63/66 Hatton Garden, London, England, EC1N 8LE). All services and products accessible through the site www.upfxtrade.com are provided by Ultimate Pinnacle Limited with the registered address Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Center P.O Box 1510, Beachmont Kingstown St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Ultimate Pinnacle Limited is a limited liability company established in Belize as an operating subsidiary within the Lepanto Group of companies (collectively “Ultimate Pinnacle”) under Registration No. 173474 and having its registered address at No. 1 Corner of Hutson Street and Marine Parade, Belize City, Belize.

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