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黄金交易提醒:市场倾向于看涨后市,仍需警惕!美联储决议携手非农登场“超级周”

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周一(5月2日)亚洲时段,现货黄金小幅走弱,目前交投于1887美元附近,上周五美元从高位回落一度给金价提供反弹机会,再加上美股大跌,金价一度反弹至1920美元附近,但市场目光仍然聚集本周的美联储决议,市场普遍预期加息50个基点,而且本周还将迎来非农等重磅经济数据,市场预期相对乐观,美元多头仓位增加,金价后市仍有进一步回调风险。

其中周一将迎来美国4月ISM制造业PMI,市场预期为57.6,前值为57.1。周二将迎来美国3月工厂订单月率,市场预期为1.2%,前值为-0.5%。周三将迎来美国4月ADP就业人数和美国4月ISM非制造业PMI,市场对美国4月ISM非制造业PMI的预期为58.5,前值为58.3。周五将迎来美国4月非农就业报告,市场预计劳动力市场仍将延续强劲表现。

此外,本周还将迎来澳洲联储决议(周二)和英国央行利率决议(周四),市场预期将分别加息15个基点和25个基点。这会增加持有黄金的机会成本,也对金价不利。

考虑到地缘局势依然紧张,调查显示,多数分析师和散户仍看涨黄金后市。根据以往的走势,金价在美联储加息前偏向下跌,但加息之后,往往会逆势上涨,投资者可以酌情参考。

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美联储激进货币政策担忧加剧,地缘紧张局势或助推金价飙升

金价周四持稳,因美元下跌抵消了美债收益率上升以及对美联储激进货币政策的担忧加剧的影响。周四现货黄金收涨0.03%,报1660.20美元/盎司。9月29日公布的数据显示,美国第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率确认为萎缩0.6%。数据公布后,金价下跌。投资者还评估了一项美国就业数据,该数据显示,上周初请失业金人数降至19.3万人,预期为21.5万人。美国9月就业人口预计增加27.5万人,尽管低于8月的31.5万人,但仍是一个稳健的数字。他说,大多数证据表明,尽管经济活动增长疲软,但美国雇主9月份继续增加就业岗位,然而,由于美联储的加息举措,就业增长大幅放缓似乎不可避免。美国9月份就业报告将于10月7日公布本周,几位美联储官员重申了联储激进加息以对抗不断飙升的通胀的承诺。 

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Lepanto Financial Advisers Limited is the holding company of Ultimate Pinnacle Limited. (Address: Fifth Floor, Suite 23, 63/66 Hatton Garden, London, England, EC1N 8LE). All services and products accessible through the site www.upfxtrade.com are provided by Ultimate Pinnacle Limited with the registered address Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Center P.O Box 1510, Beachmont Kingstown St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Ultimate Pinnacle Limited is a limited liability company established in Belize as an operating subsidiary within the Lepanto Group of companies (collectively “Ultimate Pinnacle”) under Registration No. 173474 and having its registered address at No. 1 Corner of Hutson Street and Marine Parade, Belize City, Belize.

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