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高通胀抬高加息幅度预期 黄金加速下行

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黄金周一大幅下跌,美元因美国联邦储备理事会大幅加息的押注反弹,削弱了黄金和其他贵金属的吸引力。现货金下跌2.8%,至每盎司1,819.13元,盘中最低曾触碰1817.44美元。

美国5月份消费者价格同比加速上涨8.6%,再创逾40年新高。5月核心CPI同比上涨6%,虽略低于4月的6.2%,但远未到让美联储主席鲍威尔可以放慢加息的地步。被视为美联储政策利率代表的两年期美国国债收益率自2008年以来首次突破3%,暗示美联储可能维持激进加息姿态至9月份。任何希望美联储在6月和7月会议后放慢加息步伐的希望现在似乎都遥遥无期。

美联储决策者将在本周会议结束时发布他们对本轮升息终极目标的预测。在经济放缓到足以降低通胀之前,失业率(目前为3.6%)可能会升到多高,美联储也将对此作出预测。继5月份加息50个基点和本月启动缩减资产负债表之后,美联储决策者几乎承诺在本周和7月会议上继续各加息50个基点。而一些机构甚至预测,不排除美联储本周加息75个基点。

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美元面临关键支撑考验,金价站在十字路口?

周五(11月25日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1756.59美元/盎司,因为感恩节假期,周四欧美时段金价窄幅震荡,交投比较清淡,不过受到鸽派美联储会议纪要的持续影响,美元指数周四仍然收跌,为连续三个交易日下跌,金价周四则小幅收涨,收报1755.27美元/盎司。 目前美元指数仍有进一步下行风险,有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会,但美元指数下方接近200日均线105.32附近强支撑,11月15日触及的逾三个月低点(105.30)支撑也在该位置附近,需要重点关注。如果美元指数跌破200日均线,料将给金价提供强劲的上涨动能,如果美元指数在200日均线附近获得支撑并展开反弹,则会加大金价的下跌风险。 周四的基本面相对清淡,感恩节假期,周五为感恩节翌日,没有重要经济数据出炉,多数交易日仍会休假,美国金融市场普遍会提前休市,市场观望情绪也比较浓,整体交投空间可能会受到限制。

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