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LIVE ANALYSIS

长安期货贵金属早评:逢高沽空为主,注意止盈止损

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美国劳工部最新数据显示,美国8月份新增非农就业31.5万,为2021年4月以来最小增幅,但仍高于上市场预期的30万,7月份修正后为增加52.6万。此前,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放“鹰派言论”,他表示美联储将继续采取措施“强力”措施抗击通胀,没有空间可以停下来或暂停,将通胀降至2%仍然是美联储的重点目标。美联储其他官员也陆续释放鹰派言论,美债收益率及美元指数高位运行且仍或存上行空间,COMEX黄金和白银非商业净多头持仓明显减少,美联储9月加息75个基点概率仍存。此外,欧元区8月制造业PMI数据落至荣枯线下方,显示出在欧洲国家通胀不断刷新历史新高背景下,欧洲央行政策制定者显然将应对通胀放在了比经济增长更重要的地位,欧央行9月加息50个基点概率仍然较高。总体来看,金价仍或面临显著下行压力。

综上并结合技术面,贵金属期价或承压运行,投资者可以逢高沽空为主,注意止盈止损。

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Daily Market Analysis

美元反弹打压金价,非农来袭,警惕空头“乘胜追击”

亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1916.20美元/盎司附近,因为隔夜金价跌幅较大,技术面存在一些反弹调整需求。周四欧洲央行如期加息50个基点,但欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话并不鹰派,美元指数大幅反弹,令金价大跌近40美元。 周四出炉的美国初请失业金人数低于市场预期,降至九个月最低,也给美元提供支撑,在周五非农数据公布前,一些黄金多头获利了结,对拖累金价表现。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示,对金市的基本支撑依然强劲,但市场小幅回调可能是由于在明天的美国月度就业数据之前出现一些获利了结。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美国1月份非农就业报告,虽然预期并不乐观,但从其他相关数据来看,非农新增就业人数好于预期的可能性较大,鉴于黄金技术面见顶信号进一步增强,投资者需要提防金价短线的进一步下行风险。

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