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金价若反弹突破1658美元压力,前方阻力为1680美元和1700美元

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周五(9月23日),金价下跌逾1%至2020年4月以来的最低水平1643.60。原因是美元走强、美国国债收益率上升以及对美国进一步加息的担忧等一系列因素削弱了黄金的吸引力。

上周美联储在加息后释放鹰派信号,这刺激美元当周暴涨,并不断刷新20年新高。现货黄金上周收盘重挫逾30美元,目前已经失守1650美元/盎司。我们看到美元持续走强,这将使金价在短期内处于弱势。经济显然正在走向衰退。硬着陆的风险上升,这一直在继续推动资金流入美元,这对黄金来说是个坏消息。

美联储当地时间上周三宣布,将基准联邦基金利率上调75个基点,至3%-3.25%的区间。这是美联储年内连续第三次加息75个基点。美联储还预计年底前再加息125个基点。今年以来,美联储已加息5次,累计加息幅度达300个基点。此前4次加息分别在3月、5月、6月、7月,分别加息25、50、75、75个基点,75个基点也是美联储1994年11月以来最大的单次加息幅度。

美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,为了将通胀率拉回2%并保持稳定,将致力于提高利率并将利率保持在高位,直到通胀率下降。他表示,根据历史记录,不能过早放松政策。鲍威尔称,美国没有自满的余地,尽管在某个时候放慢加息步伐是合适的,但美联储将“坚持下去,直到工作完成”。他补充道,如果政策需要受到更多限制以实现2%的通胀目标,“软着陆”的可能性会减小,然而,高通胀将带来更大的长期痛苦。

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美元面临关键支撑考验,金价站在十字路口?

周五(11月25日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1756.59美元/盎司,因为感恩节假期,周四欧美时段金价窄幅震荡,交投比较清淡,不过受到鸽派美联储会议纪要的持续影响,美元指数周四仍然收跌,为连续三个交易日下跌,金价周四则小幅收涨,收报1755.27美元/盎司。 目前美元指数仍有进一步下行风险,有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会,但美元指数下方接近200日均线105.32附近强支撑,11月15日触及的逾三个月低点(105.30)支撑也在该位置附近,需要重点关注。如果美元指数跌破200日均线,料将给金价提供强劲的上涨动能,如果美元指数在200日均线附近获得支撑并展开反弹,则会加大金价的下跌风险。 周四的基本面相对清淡,感恩节假期,周五为感恩节翌日,没有重要经济数据出炉,多数交易日仍会休假,美国金融市场普遍会提前休市,市场观望情绪也比较浓,整体交投空间可能会受到限制。

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