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LIVE ANALYSIS

警惕美联储重新提速,金价短线见顶风险加大

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周二(12月6日)亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡反弹,目前交投于1775美元/盎司附近;隔夜出炉的美国11月份ISM非制造业PMI数据表现强于预期,帮助美元从逾五个月低点大幅反弹,令金价从近五个月高点大幅回落,金价周一收跌1.62%,收报1668.59美元/盎司,为逾两个月最大单日跌幅,虽然短线超跌后存在反弹需求,但是后市看涨信号明显减弱。

目前一些投资者押注美国强劲的经济数据可能给美联储提供加速加息的理由,美元指数短线存在进一步反弹机会,而金价周一冲高回落后,短线见顶信号有所增强,需要提防金价的进一步回调风险或者宽幅震荡的可能性。

需要提醒的是,全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR持仓连续三个交易日下降,周一减少2.03吨,至903.46吨,为逾两年半新低,暗示机构投资者和中长线投资者仍倾向于看空黄金后市。

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Daily Market Analysis

美元反弹打压金价,非农来袭,警惕空头“乘胜追击”

亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1916.20美元/盎司附近,因为隔夜金价跌幅较大,技术面存在一些反弹调整需求。周四欧洲央行如期加息50个基点,但欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话并不鹰派,美元指数大幅反弹,令金价大跌近40美元。 周四出炉的美国初请失业金人数低于市场预期,降至九个月最低,也给美元提供支撑,在周五非农数据公布前,一些黄金多头获利了结,对拖累金价表现。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示,对金市的基本支撑依然强劲,但市场小幅回调可能是由于在明天的美国月度就业数据之前出现一些获利了结。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美国1月份非农就业报告,虽然预期并不乐观,但从其他相关数据来看,非农新增就业人数好于预期的可能性较大,鉴于黄金技术面见顶信号进一步增强,投资者需要提防金价短线的进一步下行风险。

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