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LIVE ANALYSIS

美元涨势如虹,俄乌“展开对话”,市场看涨情绪降温

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周一(4月29日)亚洲时段,现货黄金在近两周低位附近徘徊,目前交投于1928美元附近,俄谈判代表证实与乌进行了“几次长时间对话”,令避险情绪降温,而美联储加速收紧政策的迹象提振了美国国债收益率,帮助美元指数周线三连阳,屡次刷新逾两年高点,令金价录得三月中旬以来最大单周跌幅。调查显示,市场对黄金后市的看涨情绪明显下降。

基本面主要利空:
美联储5月加息50个基点的概率接近100%
美元指数创逾两年高位
俄谈判代表证实与乌进行了“几次长时间对话”
联合国秘书长周二将会见普京,周四会见泽连斯基
基本面主要利多:
美国国务卿和防长据称已抵达基辅,乌克兰将要求提供重型武器
美国三大股指跌幅均超2.5%,不佳企业绩报和加息预期令投资者紧张不安
最近一周美元净多仓为129.1亿美元,连降第三周

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Daily Market Analysis

黄金交易提醒:美联储决议来袭,警惕多空双杀!

周三(2月1日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡,目前交投于1927美元/盎司附近。隔夜金价探底回升,虽然上周出炉的美国四季度GDP数据增强了鹰派预期,再加上月末仓位调整因素,美元指数周二一度反弹至近两周高位附近,金价则一度跌至1900整数关口附近,但美国第四季劳动力成本增幅低于预期,令鸽派预期有所回升,吸引逢低涌入金市,帮助金价扭跌为涨,收盘交投于1928美元/盎司附近。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美联储利率决议,市场普遍预期美联储将加息25个基点,但对于美联储的鹰鸽态度还存在一定的分歧。一方面,美联储可能强化将利率较长时间维持在5%以上,以更好的控制通胀水平,但另一方面,市场怀疑美联储可能会向外界传递将在5月份中止加息的信号。

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