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LIVE ANALYSIS

现货黄金价格跌破1700美元 美联储加息预期骤升

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数据显示美国服务业活动于8月继续扩张,提振美元走强,令黄金承压。 ISM非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)8月份达56.9,高于预期的55.1和7月份的56.7。

该数据加上上周积极的非农就业报告,表明美国经济的活力有所恢复,为美联储提供了更多大幅加息的空间。

受此提振,美元指数升0.25%至110.49,早前一度升至,110.69,创 20 多年新高,而美元指数期货 也有所走强。 10 年期美国国债收益率则创两个月新高,一度站上3.36%,短期国债利率也走高。

投资者现在预计美联储将于9月加息0.75厘的概率为72%

随着美联储于今年开始加息,黄金价格已从2022年的峰值大幅下跌。虽然全球经济可能放缓,但黄金没有从不断增长的避险需求中获益。其他贵金属价格也于今年走低。

工业金属中,铜价结束本周早些时候的强劲升势。铜期货跌%,此前虽然全球最大的铜进口国中国表示将推出更多刺激措施,但低迷的全球经济前景仍然抑制了铜价。

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Daily Market Analysis

美元反弹打压金价,非农来袭,警惕空头“乘胜追击”

亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1916.20美元/盎司附近,因为隔夜金价跌幅较大,技术面存在一些反弹调整需求。周四欧洲央行如期加息50个基点,但欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话并不鹰派,美元指数大幅反弹,令金价大跌近40美元。 周四出炉的美国初请失业金人数低于市场预期,降至九个月最低,也给美元提供支撑,在周五非农数据公布前,一些黄金多头获利了结,对拖累金价表现。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示,对金市的基本支撑依然强劲,但市场小幅回调可能是由于在明天的美国月度就业数据之前出现一些获利了结。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美国1月份非农就业报告,虽然预期并不乐观,但从其他相关数据来看,非农新增就业人数好于预期的可能性较大,鉴于黄金技术面见顶信号进一步增强,投资者需要提防金价短线的进一步下行风险。

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