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持续的俄乌冲突对天然气价格影响有多大?

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1. 俄乌冲突对全球主要地区天然气价格的影响 
近期,俄乌冲突不断发酵,美欧正考虑对俄罗斯的能源出口进行限制以制裁俄罗斯,但因欧洲天然气对外依存度高达90%,根据联邦经济部发布的数据,在欧盟范围内,约有40%的天然气进口来自俄罗斯,所以除去立陶宛暂停进口俄罗斯LNG之外,欧洲无法在短时间内彻底切断从俄罗斯进口天然气。
2. 俄乌冲突对未来天然气价格走势影响推演
此次俄乌冲突发生于天然气主消费地与主产地之间,在天然气国际期货市场体制完善下,对天然气国际价格影响较为剧烈,根据隆众预测,由于年前各地库存较低,2022年天然气价格应会整体维持高位运行。
3. 俄乌冲突对国内天然气市场的影响  俄乌冲突对国内天然气市场的直接影响是有限的,更多的是一种间接的影响。进口端的市场化使托运商制度流行,第三方可以通过开放的窗口期进口国际天然气现货,但随着国际油气价的走高,国内买家很难买到国际上具有价格竞争力的气源,相反长协量比较大的三桶油又重拾了在国内市场上的竞争力。
4. 期货交易有助于市场降低风险,提高供应安全保障 
纵观天然气发展史,直至20世纪20年代,由于二战之后经济振兴的需求及铺设管道技术的发展,管道输送距离逐渐增加,美国开始铺设天然气管网,60年代开始,在天然气进出口国直接相继建造了许多跨国管道,90年代初,美国率先出现了天然气期货交易,21世纪初,欧洲等地也逐渐上市天然气期货,天然气市场制度逐渐完善。



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Lepanto Financial Advisers Limited is the holding company of Ultimate Pinnacle Limited. (Address: Fifth Floor, Suite 23, 63/66 Hatton Garden, London, England, EC1N 8LE). All services and products accessible through the site www.upfxtrade.com are provided by Ultimate Pinnacle Limited with the registered address Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Center P.O Box 1510, Beachmont Kingstown St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Ultimate Pinnacle Limited is a limited liability company established in Belize as an operating subsidiary within the Lepanto Group of companies (collectively “Ultimate Pinnacle”) under Registration No. 173474 and having its registered address at No. 1 Corner of Hutson Street and Marine Parade, Belize City, Belize.

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