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利好黄金!桥水基金创始人警告,美国经济衰退或在2023年或2024年到来

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戴利奥估计,如果美联储希望成功地抑制通胀,就必须继续大幅提高利率。再考虑到乌克兰战争等其他因素,他预计,随着美国经济可能在2023年或2024年陷入衰退,美国股票和债券将继续受到影响。

他在周三接受采访时表示,现在美国的年增长率非常接近零。他认为2023年和2024年情况会变得更糟,这将对选举产生影响。

美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)承诺,美联储将尽其所能遏制通货膨胀,即使通货膨胀会在此过程中冲击市场和经济。但Dalio认为,要实现这一目标,美联储必须将基准利率提高到4%至5%之间。假设美联储周三确实加息至少75个基点,这将使联邦基金利率自金融危机前以来首次超过3%。

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美联储激进货币政策担忧加剧,地缘紧张局势或助推金价飙升

金价周四持稳,因美元下跌抵消了美债收益率上升以及对美联储激进货币政策的担忧加剧的影响。周四现货黄金收涨0.03%,报1660.20美元/盎司。9月29日公布的数据显示,美国第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率确认为萎缩0.6%。数据公布后,金价下跌。投资者还评估了一项美国就业数据,该数据显示,上周初请失业金人数降至19.3万人,预期为21.5万人。美国9月就业人口预计增加27.5万人,尽管低于8月的31.5万人,但仍是一个稳健的数字。他说,大多数证据表明,尽管经济活动增长疲软,但美国雇主9月份继续增加就业岗位,然而,由于美联储的加息举措,就业增长大幅放缓似乎不可避免。美国9月份就业报告将于10月7日公布本周,几位美联储官员重申了联储激进加息以对抗不断飙升的通胀的承诺。 

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Lepanto Financial Advisers Limited is the holding company of Ultimate Pinnacle Limited. (Address: Fifth Floor, Suite 23, 63/66 Hatton Garden, London, England, EC1N 8LE). All services and products accessible through the site www.upfxtrade.com are provided by Ultimate Pinnacle Limited with the registered address Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Center P.O Box 1510, Beachmont Kingstown St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Ultimate Pinnacle Limited is a limited liability company established in Belize as an operating subsidiary within the Lepanto Group of companies (collectively “Ultimate Pinnacle”) under Registration No. 173474 and having its registered address at No. 1 Corner of Hutson Street and Marine Parade, Belize City, Belize.

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