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LIVE ANALYSIS

三颗“黄昏之星”压顶,PCE数据还能拯救多头吗?

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周五(12月23日)亚洲时段,现货黄金窄幅震荡,目前交投于1793.92美元/盎司附近。周四美国初请失业金人数低于预期,三季度GDP数据被上修,市场担忧美联储在对抗通胀的道路上更加激进,给美元提供支撑,金价则再度回落至1800关口下方。
数据表示:“黄金下跌,美国经济继续显示出韧性,这可能使美联储的收紧力度比市场消化的要大得多。”

技术面来看,日线级别,金价在相对高位出现了三次类似“黄昏之星”的顶部K线组合,投资者需要提防金价后市的下行风险。

本交易日将迎来美联储衡量通胀水平的数据——PCE数据,投资者需要重点关注。目前市场预计美国11月PCE物价指数同比上涨5.6%,低于10月的6%,核心CPE预计同比上涨4.7%,低于10月的5%。如果数据符合预期或者低于预期,则有望在短线给金价提供上涨动能。


此外,还需关注美国11月耐用品订单月率初值的表现,
该数据对GDP有一定的前瞻参考作用,因此市场影响也比较大,目前市场预计环比下降0.6%,前值为1.1%,如果符合预期,也有望给金价提供支撑。

不过,临近圣诞节假期,预计整体交投空间可能会受到一定的限制,近几个交易日SPDR黄金ETF持仓也一直没有变化。

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美元反弹打压金价,非农来袭,警惕空头“乘胜追击”

亚洲时段,现货黄金震荡微涨,目前交投于1916.20美元/盎司附近,因为隔夜金价跌幅较大,技术面存在一些反弹调整需求。周四欧洲央行如期加息50个基点,但欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话并不鹰派,美元指数大幅反弹,令金价大跌近40美元。 周四出炉的美国初请失业金人数低于市场预期,降至九个月最低,也给美元提供支撑,在周五非农数据公布前,一些黄金多头获利了结,对拖累金价表现。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示,对金市的基本支撑依然强劲,但市场小幅回调可能是由于在明天的美国月度就业数据之前出现一些获利了结。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美国1月份非农就业报告,虽然预期并不乐观,但从其他相关数据来看,非农新增就业人数好于预期的可能性较大,鉴于黄金技术面见顶信号进一步增强,投资者需要提防金价短线的进一步下行风险。

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