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【市场观点】供应冲击犹存,国际能源价格居高不下

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俄乌冲突阴云再起,俄罗斯供应中断担忧犹存
从本来国际原油和天然气价格上涨的驱动逻辑看,主要是供应冲击导致的,一方面由于疫情导致国际原油和天然气产量在2020-2021年受到影响;另一方面2022年俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯原油和天然气出口可能受到制约,尤其是欧美西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁不断加码。
由于俄乌冲突和欧美西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁,俄罗斯石油供应损失可能超过700万桶/日,这将远超OPEC有能力替代的水平。EIA发布的数据显示,2021年12月,俄罗斯原油产量约为1118.6万桶/天,同比增长8.7%,但较疫情前下降了30万桶/天左右。据俄罗斯能源部发布的数据,2022年1月,俄罗斯原油(包括凝析油)产量为4652.8万吨,同比增长8.2%,约为1551万桶/天,较疫情前减少100万吨左右。
根据俄罗斯能源部旗下CDU-TEK的数据,从4月1日到6日,俄罗斯平均原油日产量为143.6万吨,相当于每天约1052万桶,比3月日均1110万桶的水平减少4.5%。如果这种情况持续至月底,那么4月份原油产量将比3月减少约50万桶/天。
从出口看,2022年1月,俄罗斯原油出口量约为673.9万桶/天,大约占全球原油出口量的11%,目前来看尚未其他国家的出口量增量能够弥补这个缺口。

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Lepanto Financial Advisers Limited is the holding company of Ultimate Pinnacle Limited. (Address: Fifth Floor, Suite 23, 63/66 Hatton Garden, London, England, EC1N 8LE). All services and products accessible through the site www.upfxtrade.com are provided by Ultimate Pinnacle Limited with the registered address Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Center P.O Box 1510, Beachmont Kingstown St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
Ultimate Pinnacle Limited is a limited liability company established in Belize as an operating subsidiary within the Lepanto Group of companies (collectively “Ultimate Pinnacle”) under Registration No. 173474 and having its registered address at No. 1 Corner of Hutson Street and Marine Parade, Belize City, Belize.

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