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【市场观点】供应冲击犹存,国际能源价格居高不下

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俄乌冲突阴云再起,俄罗斯供应中断担忧犹存
从本来国际原油和天然气价格上涨的驱动逻辑看,主要是供应冲击导致的,一方面由于疫情导致国际原油和天然气产量在2020-2021年受到影响;另一方面2022年俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯原油和天然气出口可能受到制约,尤其是欧美西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁不断加码。
由于俄乌冲突和欧美西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁,俄罗斯石油供应损失可能超过700万桶/日,这将远超OPEC有能力替代的水平。EIA发布的数据显示,2021年12月,俄罗斯原油产量约为1118.6万桶/天,同比增长8.7%,但较疫情前下降了30万桶/天左右。据俄罗斯能源部发布的数据,2022年1月,俄罗斯原油(包括凝析油)产量为4652.8万吨,同比增长8.2%,约为1551万桶/天,较疫情前减少100万吨左右。
根据俄罗斯能源部旗下CDU-TEK的数据,从4月1日到6日,俄罗斯平均原油日产量为143.6万吨,相当于每天约1052万桶,比3月日均1110万桶的水平减少4.5%。如果这种情况持续至月底,那么4月份原油产量将比3月减少约50万桶/天。
从出口看,2022年1月,俄罗斯原油出口量约为673.9万桶/天,大约占全球原油出口量的11%,目前来看尚未其他国家的出口量增量能够弥补这个缺口。

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黄金交易提醒:美联储决议来袭,警惕多空双杀!

周三(2月1日)亚市盘初,现货黄金窄幅震荡,目前交投于1927美元/盎司附近。隔夜金价探底回升,虽然上周出炉的美国四季度GDP数据增强了鹰派预期,再加上月末仓位调整因素,美元指数周二一度反弹至近两周高位附近,金价则一度跌至1900整数关口附近,但美国第四季劳动力成本增幅低于预期,令鸽派预期有所回升,吸引逢低涌入金市,帮助金价扭跌为涨,收盘交投于1928美元/盎司附近。 本交易日市场目光将聚集美联储利率决议,市场普遍预期美联储将加息25个基点,但对于美联储的鹰鸽态度还存在一定的分歧。一方面,美联储可能强化将利率较长时间维持在5%以上,以更好的控制通胀水平,但另一方面,市场怀疑美联储可能会向外界传递将在5月份中止加息的信号。

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